In her recent article on InfoWorld, Jennifer Kavur asks whether ePub is the next PDF. Kavur claims that since its adoption as a standard in late 2007, ePub has driven ebook sales. This is a bold statement to make, especially given the size of Amazon and Sony. Despite the lack of any exact sales figures, it seems reasonable to guess that most U.S. ebook sales occur in a proprietary format.

Kavur, however, is correct when she states that open standards are good for publishers and consumers. But, those open standards have value only when they are widely adopted. Up to this point, the major ebook distributors have largely ignored the ePub standard. Sony’s device supports it -- but if you buy from its store, you’ll get its proprietary BBEB format. Barnes & Noble has said that it will eventually sell it, but currently offers ebooks only in the protected eReader format and has given few details regarding the eventual DRM it will use. Amazon has the most distance from the standard -- its device won’t even read the file type.

Why has ePub not been more successful? After all, content creators have embraced its use. Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian provide a possible explanation in their book “Information Rules.” According to the authors, those who control the distribution channels can control the standards surrounding those channels. To illustrate their point, they tell the following story:

When [Thomas] Edison opened the first public telephone exchange, his operating manuals prompted “Hello!” as the proper way to answer the phone. . . At the same time, Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor of the telephone, proclaimed that “Ahoy!” was the correct way to answer the telephone.

Edison’s “standard” won out not because it was better or because Edison knew more about the telephone. Today, we answer the telephone saying “Hello” because Edison’s distribution of user manuals gave him greater influence in how voice data should be transmitted.

Currently, a small number of companies control ebook distribution. These companies have recognized that this control gives them an opportunity to exert significant influence over ebook standards. If they can establish their proprietary format as a desired standard in the eyes of consumers, these companies stand to profit considerably.

UPDATE: Since publishing this post, Sony has announced that it will abandon its proprietary BBEB file format and DRM technology and instead use ePub and Adobe DRM.